America’s Economic Future: Latinos and the Institutions that Serve Them

7 min read4 days ago

By: Lily Cuellarsola, Excelencia in Education

As one of the fastest-growing and youngest demographic groups in the United States, Latinos are uniquely positioned to shape the nation’s future. Their increasing representation in colleges and universities has profound implications for economic growth and social mobility. Fields like healthcare, technology, and engineering — sectors experiencing rapid growth and requiring advanced degrees — underscore the critical need for increased Latino degree attainment to meet workforce demands. Latinos not only have the potential but also the determination to fill these vital roles. Despite persistent challenges, Latinos have made remarkable strides in enrollment and degree attainment, underscoring their potential to meet the nation’s workforce needs. This post examines a young and growing Latino population, trends in college enrollment and attainment, and the looming challenges of the demographic cliff. It concludes by exploring actionable strategies to harness Latino talent, emphasizing the urgent need for investment in their success and our nation’s future.

A Young and Growing Population

Latinos are one of the youngest demographic groups in the nation. In 2023, nearly one in three Latinos (29%) were under the age of 18, while ages 18–44 made up the largest share at 41%. By comparison, just 21% were aged 45–64, and only 9% were 65 or older.¹

Latinos are younger compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Those under 45 make up 51% of the White population, 61% of the Asian population, and 63% of the Black population, whereas 70% of the Latino population are under 45.²

Source: Excelencia in Education analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2023 (PUMS, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex, Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States).

Latinos are not only a young population but a growing population. Latinos are projected to grow more than any other racial or ethnic group over the next decade. In 2020, Latinos comprised 19% of the total U.S. population, which is expected to rise to 21% by 2030 (a growth of 10 million people).³ This growth is driven largely by domestic births rather than immigration, reflecting a significant shift in population dynamics.

The Black and Asian populations are also projected to grow by 2030 (by 6 million and 5 million, respectively).⁴ At the same time, the White population is projected to decrease by 2030 (by 4 million).⁵

With 70% of Latinos under age 45 and the population projected to grow by 10 million over the next decade, Latinos will play a critical role in shaping the future of the U.S. workforce. As older generations retire, Latinos will be instrumental in filling workforce gaps across industries, particularly in sectors requiring a college degree.

Latino College-Going Rate and Enrollment

Latinos have made significant strides in higher education. Between 2000 and 2022, the college-going rate for Latino students increased from 49% to 58%, representing the largest growth among any racial or ethnic group.⁶ During the same period, rates for Black students rose modestly (57% to 60%), while rates for White and Asian students slightly declined.⁷ Despite this progress, Latinos still have opportunities to further narrow the gaps in college-going rates and educational attainment.

Source: Excelencia in Education analysis of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Digest of Education Statistics, [2022], Table 302.20. Percentage of recent high school completers enrolled in college, by race/ethnicity and level of institution: 1960 through 2022.

Looking ahead, Latino college enrollment is expected to grow significantly. From 2020 to 2030, enrollment is projected to rise from 3.7 million to 4.5 million students, a 21% increase.⁸ In contrast, Black student enrollment is projected to grow by 19%, while White and Asian student enrollment will remain largely stable or decline slightly.⁹ This growth positions Latino students as a pivotal force in the future of American higher education, especially as overall enrollments are projected to decline in the coming years.

Source: Excelencia in Education analysis of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Digest of Education Statistics, [2022], Table 306.30. Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1976 through 2030

The Demographic Cliff

According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), the number of high school graduates is expected to peak in the mid-2020s before entering a period of steady decline through the end of 2041.¹⁰ This is commonly referred to as the “demographic cliff.” The country produced about 3.8 million high school graduates in the Class of 2019 and is projected to peak at 3.9 million in the Class of 2025.¹¹ After 2025, due in large part to the decline in births during and following the Great Recession (2008 to present), the U.S. should expect fewer graduates in all graduating classes between 2026 and 2041.¹²

While the demographic cliff poses significant challenges for higher education, Latino students offer a pathway to defy these trends and sustain America’s future. With their young demographic profile and increasing college-going rates, Latinos are projected to drive enrollment growth even as overall high school graduate numbers decline. By 2030, Latino college enrollment is expected to rise from 3.7 million to 4.5 million students, representing the largest increase among all racial and ethnic groups. This growth underscores the importance of creating accessible pathways to higher education and to go beyond enrollment to intentionally SERVE Latino, and all, students.

A Path Forward

What does it mean to go beyond enrollment to intentionally SERVE Latino students? Excelencia established Presidents for Latino Student Success (P4LSS), a network of more than 206 postsecondary leaders from 27 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico committed to a collective goal with Excelencia in Education of Ensuring America’s Future by making our country stronger with the talents, skills, and contributions of Latino college graduates. In 2024, the P4LSS network represented only 6% of colleges/universities yet enrolled 33% and graduated 35% of all Latino students. Comparing the P4LSS network to all institutions:

Students are more likely to receive Pell Grants and less likely to receive federal student loans or total grant aid.
Retention rates are higher.
Latino faculty representation is about twice as high.

After working with institutional leaders, Excelencia established the Seal of Excelencia as a way to set higher expectations of institutional efforts. The Seal is a national certification for institutions that strive to go beyond enrollment to intentionally SERVE Latino students and demonstrate their commitment to continue their transformation journey to ensure they are places where Latino, and all, students thrive.

The 46 Seal of Excelencia certified institutions represent less than 1% of colleges/universities yet enroll 17% and graduate 19% of all Latino students in 2024. Further, data show Seal-certified institutions are leading nationally in serving Latino and all students beyond enrollment and graduation. Among Seal-certified institutions:

All undergraduates have higher retention rates than students at all institutions.
Latinos have higher graduation rates than Latinos nationally.
Latino faculty representation is almost three times higher than at all institutions.

To build on the collective efforts of these institutional leaders, Exclencia released an updated 2024 Policy Agenda. Excelencia’s policy priorities are grounded in the strengths and needs of the Latino community and evidence-based practices that support Latinos’ academic achievement and that of other post-traditional students. To accelerate Latino student success, policymakers should invest in affordability, institutional capacity, retention and transfer, and workforce preparation strategies and practices.

Conclusion

Addressing current challenges in higher education — such as access, affordability, retention and transfer — will be essential as the Latino population continues to grow and diversify. Latinos are not just a growing demographic but a vital source of talent for the degree-required career pathways that drive our economy. As they increasingly enter these fields, Latinos will significantly contribute to innovation, growth, and societal progress. Investing in their potential is a practical necessity, as our country’s future prosperity depends on ensuring a thriving society for all.

Sources

Excelencia in Education analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2023 (PMUS, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex, Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Excelencia in Education analysis of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Digest of Education Statistics, [2022], Table 302.20. Percentage of recent high school completers enrolled in college, by race/ethnicity and level of institution: 1960 through 2022.
Ibid.
Excelencia in Education analysis of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Digest of Education Statistics, [2022], Table 306.30. Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1976 through 2030
Ibid.
Lane, P., Falkenstern, C., & Bransberger, P. (2024). Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. https://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
Ibid.
Ibid.